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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes went beyond expectations: Many investors were stressed that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, before the necessary financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually certainly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The main ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten different ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology assets. The ETF offers exposure to a variety of sectors, permitting you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.