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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the needed economic goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which generally occur before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.